XRP is testing key support near $1.35 heading into this week's Fed policy decision. Traders now price an 87% probability of a rate hike, up sharply from 59% a week earlier, while one analyst points to a possible drop toward $1.25 and another sees a breakout toward $1.60 if resistance breaks.
XRP trades near $1.35, down 1.9% on the day though still up 4.7% over the past week. The token is slipping below last week's key support zone around $1.355, though not decisively enough yet to call the setup broken.
Structure Points to a Possible Slide Toward $1.25
A crypto analyst tracking XRP's structure says the token has held below its short- and medium-term average price levels since Friday, a shift that technically points toward $1.25 as the next target if weakness continues. Taken purely on structure, that is a mildly bearish signal.
The analyst was careful not to overstate it, however. Wider support still sits between $1.29 and $1.32, and the selling pressure behind the pullback doesn't look particularly aggressive. XRP's strength relative to Bitcoin has pulled back over the past week too, but it remains range-bound rather than trending downward.
Fed Decision Adds Uncertainty
The Fed's policy meeting lands Wednesday. Markets are now pricing an 87% probability of a rate hike, up sharply from just 59% a week earlier. Historically, entering this kind of week with bearish pressure already priced in tends to produce a less negative reaction than entering it euphoric and bullish, since overly bullish setups heading into major Fed meetings have historically seen worse outcomes both immediately after the announcement and in the days that follow.
Order flow adds a mixed layer. Funding rates have dropped sharply as new short positions pile in, though they haven't turned negative yet. The analyst said XRP appears to be trending toward negative funding while price sits at $1.34, a combination that historically can set up a bounce rather than confirm further downside.
Bullish Counterpoint Targets $1.60
Not everyone reads the setup as bearish. Analyst Ali Charts is watching for a different outcome, arguing that as long as XRP holds the $1.31 to $1.35 support zone, the token could be building toward a breakout. The level to watch, according to Ali Charts, is $1.38 — a decisive close above that resistance could confirm a bullish breakout and open the door toward $1.60.
XRP's structure leans mildly bearish heading into this week, but neither order flow nor fundamentals currently support a break below the $1.29-$1.32 support zone. A bounce from current levels remains the more likely near-term scenario, while a clean break above $1.38 would flip the setup toward $1.60 instead.
Source: Coinpedia Fintech News
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