XRP is entering August carrying a four-year streak of August losses, but exchange data shows leveraged positions have dropped back to levels last seen before the late-2024 rally. Trader Zach Rector still expects a possible drop below $1, while CryptoQuant's open interest data shows less leverage than during XRP's January and July 2025 highs.
Four straight Augusts have ended in losses for XRP, but leverage across major exchanges has cooled this year, according to CryptoQuant.
XRP Has Lost Ground Every August Since 2022
The token ended July near $1.06, and traders are watching whether August will finally break the pattern. According to CryptoRank, XRP has finished every August in the red since 2022, falling 13.6% in 2022, 26.6% in 2023, 9.17% in 2024, and 8.15% in 2025. However, across its full price history, XRP has averaged a 0.43% gain in August, outperforming its average returns in June and February.
Trader Zach Rector Warns of a Possible Drop Below $1
Crypto trader Zach Rector believes XRP may not be out of danger yet, noting that August has often been difficult during U.S. midterm election years. He pointed to prior August declines of 5% in 2014, 23% in 2018, and 13% during the last bear market, an average drop of about 14% across those periods.
If history repeats, Rector believes XRP could revisit the $0.88 to $0.90 range before finding a stronger bottom. Chart analyst ChartNerd separately noted that XRP is approaching a long-term ascending support line that has held since 2020, a level whose previous touches have often been followed by rallies rather than deeper breakdowns.
Open Interest Data Points to Reduced Leverage
One signal supporting a less bearish case comes from CryptoQuant's multi-exchange open interest data. The measure shows leveraged positions across Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Kraken have dropped back to levels last seen before the late-2024 rally, even as XRP trades around $1.08.
That suggests speculative leverage has largely been cleared from the market. Unlike the sharp open interest spikes seen during XRP's January and July 2025 highs, the current setup appears healthier, with fewer overleveraged traders.
Price Outlook Hinges on the $1.00 Level
XRP is down 1.66% in the last 24 hours and trading around $1.06 as the broader crypto market remains weak. If it holds above the $1.00 support level, XRP could move between $1.05 and $1.10 in the coming days; a drop below $1.00 may push it further toward the $0.90-$0.95 range.
Source: Coinpedia Fintech News
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