Bitcoin loses its $60,000 floor as hot PCE data hardens the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance. These are the key levels to watch

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped back below the $60,000 mark and down to its lowest level since late 2024, capping a bruising week for crypto. The latest leg lower came after a hotter than expected US inflation print hardened the case for a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is in no hurry to cut, and may even be preparing to hike.

The move extends the risk-off tone we flagged earlier this week, when a hawkish Fed and a stronger dollar started to weigh on risk assets. Since then, the pressure has only built.

The inflation data that moved the needle

On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, came in hot:

• Headline PCE rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, its highest reading since April 2023
• Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, held at 3.4%, the highest since October 2023

For a central bank that has already dropped its easing bias and removed a 2026 rate cut from its projections, the data does little to soften the message. Markets now lean towards rates staying higher for longer, and some participants are positioning for a potential hike later in the year. Deutsche Bank has gone further, and now expects two Fed hikes in 2026, a notable reversal from the cuts priced in not long ago.

Higher rates and a firmer dollar raise the cost of holding risk and tend to pull capital towards cash and bonds. That backdrop has weighed on Bitcoin all year.

A market already under pressure

Bitcoin did not arrive here in good shape. Several strains have been building at once:

• ETF outflows have deepened. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed roughly $469 million in a single session on 24 June, part of close to $3 billion in net outflows across June, one of the most sustained redemption stretches since these products launched
• Leverage has been flushed. The break below $60,000 triggered more than $1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, with forced selling accelerating the move
• Capital has rotated away from crypto, with money continuing to flow towards artificial intelligence (AI) equities and high-profile listings

The result is a Bitcoin that has more than halved from its October 2025 record high, now grinding through the eighth month of a bear market.

A record options expiry adds to the noise

Adding to the uncertainty, today brings the largest Bitcoin options expiry of the year. Roughly $10.6 billion in open interest is set to settle on Deribit, around 37% of all active contracts on the platform. About 80% of those contracts are out of the money, and Bitcoin is trading below its estimated gamma flip zone, a regime in which dealer hedging can amplify moves rather than dampen them.

The days that follow the expiry could prove more telling than the event itself. As hedges come off into thin weekend liquidity, any move could be exaggerated in either direction.

Bitcoin technical analysis: weekly

Zooming out to the weekly, the teal line is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), and Bitcoin has now broken below it once again. With the weekly close due in two days, there is a chance Bitcoin prints its first weekly close below the 200-week SMA since June 2022.

That is worth watching for context rather than as a signal in itself. The last time this happened, it occurred around 30 weeks before the last major bottom formed.

There is a second echo of that period. Back then, the weekly RSI carved out a bullish divergence, and something similar appears to be forming now, with the weekly RSI making higher highs while price makes lower highs. This does not mean a bottom is in. It points to a potential shift in momentum and a pattern that could repeat, though the timing remains uncertain.

Bitcoin technical analysis: daily

On the daily, Bitcoin is currently holding the 60K support area, but it has broken down out of its local range, marked by the white dotted lines. The RSI again shows a potential bullish divergence.

• A reclaim of the 61K area could open a move up to test the previous range equilibrium, the middle of the range, which lines up with the daily 20 EMA at around 63.5K
• A failure to reclaim the 60K to 61K zone could take price lower towards the next major support at around 55K

Bitcoin technical analysis: 4H

Zooming in to the 4H, there is a bullish divergence here too between price and RSI.

If Bitcoin can reclaim the level around 61K, which aligns with the range lows, and break above the descending trend line marked in white, it could signal a break in the local downtrend and open a retest of the range high as the next major resistance above. This is an important level for Bitcoin to reclaim if bulls want to push prices higher.

Why this matters for Bitcoin

The setup leaves Bitcoin caught between a hawkish macro backdrop and a fragile technical picture. The inflation data has removed one of the few near-term catalysts bulls were counting on, while outflows and deleveraging have stripped the market of support.

What to watch in the days ahead:

• Whether daily spot ETF flows turn positive, the clearest sign the institutional seller has stepped back
• How the market behaves once today’s options expiry clears and dealer hedging unwinds
• Whether the 60K to 61K area can be reclaimed, or whether it now caps the market on the way back up

The next major macro test comes at the Fed’s late-July meeting. With inflation rising and growth holding up, policymakers have little obvious reason to ease, which leaves risk assets exposed to further swings.

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