Bitcoin's correlation with gold climbed to its highest level in nearly six years during the latest bond market selloff, Bitwise data shows. Glassnode is less convinced the parallel divergence from U.S. stocks will hold, noting similar moves have previously proven short-lived.
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020 during the latest bond market selloff, according to data from Bitwise. The move followed a jump in yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasurys after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased purchases of long-dated bonds.
Bitcoin then rose 22.4% over the following week — its biggest weekly gain since March 2024 — while gold added about 5% and stocks fell, Bitwise's André Dragosch, the firm's director of research for Europe, said in a Wednesday client memo. The last comparable correlation reading came in 2020, when governments and central banks answered the Covid crisis with fiscal and monetary stimulus, Dragosch said.
Bitcoin was also negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index at the end of August, according to Bitwise's 90-day measure, implying dollar weakness has become a tailwind for both assets. Dragosch said: "bitcoin has recently started to look like an amplified version of gold".
Stocks decoupling may not last
Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally, analysts at Glassnode noted in a Tuesday report, even as U.S. stocks stayed largely flat. But sudden decorrelations during sovereign bond selloffs have tended to be short-lived historically, the analysts said, marking local exhaustion rather than a structural shift. Bitcoin's own correlation to stocks has always held around .40, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, adding that over the past six months gold, small caps, emerging markets, and Treasurys have grown more correlated with equities instead.
Bitcoin holds between key supply zones
Bitcoin cleared $80,000 toward the end of August after a 25% monthly rally, before falling back toward $76,000. Glassnode identified a cluster of long-term holder supply between $83,000 and $86,000, while its main accumulation floor sits between $62,000 and $65,000, with bitcoin trading between the two levels at around $77,600.
At around $78,000 in late August, 68% of bitcoin's supply was in profit, compared with 65% when the price traded at a similar level in May, according to Glassnode. Spot bitcoin ETFs were taking in an average of $290 million a day at the height of the rally, while daily ETF trading volume stayed near $3 billion.
Source: The Block
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