Bitcoin recovered to near $64,400 on Wednesday morning, up roughly 1.6% over 24 hours after a $62,684 low the day before, with the Federal Reserve's rate decision due at 2 p.m. EDT. CME FedWatch data priced about a 32% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. Thinner derivatives leverage and reversing ETF flows suggest a market waiting for policy clarity rather than positioning for a move.
Bitcoin traded near $64,400 on Wednesday morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT, up roughly 1.6% over the previous 24 hours as positioning accelerated before the Federal Reserve's afternoon rate decision. The rebound came after the price briefly slipped below $63,000 in the prior session, setting a $62,684 low before buyers defended that area.
Volume held between $24 billion and $25 billion on Wednesday, with market capitalization near $1.29 trillion and approximately 20.06 million BTC in circulation. The recovery only retraced part of July's decline: bitcoin remains roughly 45% to 49% below its October 2025 record just above $126,000.
Hike odds keep positioning cautious
Consensus still favors the Fed holding its benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, though futures and prediction markets have continued assigning meaningful odds to another increase. According to CME FedWatch data, markets priced a roughly 68% probability of no change and about a 32% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase. Sticky inflation readings and elevated energy prices have kept that possibility alive, even after Brent crude retreated from its recent spike.
Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, views the Fed's messaging around financial conditions and inflation as more important than the policy decision itself. He expects another hawkish hold but said "one must respect the non-negligible possibility of a rate hike".
Support and resistance define the range
The 14-day relative strength index near 51 matches a market waiting for a catalyst, with oscillators and the moving average summary neutral. Buyers have repeatedly defended the $62,500 to $63,300 region, while resistance between $64,500 and $65,000 has consistently attracted profit-taking. Above that, the $66,800 to $67,000 zone remains the larger technical hurdle.
Leverage thins as ETF flows reverse
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted inflows earlier in July before reversing course, with recent sessions posting outflows ranging from roughly $11 million to $50 million. Cryptoquant estimated perpetual futures open interest near $65 billion around July 28, down roughly 20% from last September's peak. Binance alone represents about $22.86 billion, or approximately 35% of the market.
Once the decision passes, attention shifts to Thursday's GDP and PCE inflation reports, with earnings from Coinbase and Strategy adding another layer of information about institutional demand. The immediate reaction will likely depend less on the rate decision itself than on Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance.
Sources: Bitcoin News, Investing.com, Yahoo Personal Finance
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