Bitcoin barely moved after the July CPI report landed at 3.4% year over year on August 12, the third straight month a major U.S. inflation print failed to shift its price by more than 1%. Data cited in the report point to a structural break: Bitcoin's correlation with global monetary easing has flipped from positive to sharply negative, while Strategy's shift to selling and a burst of ETF inflows have replaced the old macro trade.
Bitcoin moved from $63,890 to $64,100 after the July CPI print, a $210 gain of 0.33%, even though the report matched consensus at 3.4% year over year with core inflation at 2.5%. That is a fraction of the reaction CPI used to generate.
This was no one-off. In December 2024 Bitcoin moved 7% in four hours on a 3.1% CPI print, and in June 2025 a 4.2% inflation spike sent it down 9% in a single day. Now the market has gone quiet for three straight months: the June CPI print moved Bitcoin only about 0.8%, and the July 14 print's 4.4% rally reversed within 48 hours.
A correlation that flipped negative
Bitcoin's correlation with the Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks monetary policy across 41 central banks, was positive 0.21 before the spot ETF launch in January 2024 and has inverted to negative 0.778 by mid-2026. Perpetual futures trading activity sank to a three-year low ahead of the August 12 release, and options markets priced in only 1.3% expected movement, signaling traders had already stopped treating CPI as a catalyst. Analysts at The Block described the print as one that "buys the Fed time, not conviction."
Strategy has stopped buying the dips
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, bought Bitcoin on nearly every dip for four years, but that reflexive bid has reversed. The company posted an $8.2 billion loss tied to Bitcoin's decline and sold about $218 million in Bitcoin to cover preferred stock dividends, then sold another $108.6 million in Bitcoin on August 10, its seventh consecutive week without a purchase. Meanwhile spot Bitcoin ETFs still posted $854 million in weekly inflows in the first week of August despite no change in Fed rate expectations, suggesting the ETF bid now runs on its own schedule.
What could bring the macro trade back
The Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting is the next test. Polymarket data showed traders assigning 67% probability to no change and 34% probability of a 25 basis point hike — a hike would be the first since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. Strategy has said it will not resume buying until its STRC preferred stock recovers toward its $100 par value from its current $90.60. Until one of those catalysts arrives, Bitcoin's response to macro data remains muted.
Source: crypto.news
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