Bitcoin climbed above $64,500 for the first time in about a week, but analysts flagged mounting selling pressure from miners, exchange-traded fund holders, and Strategy. Bitfinex analysts separately said Bitcoin's defense of its $63,200 median realized price still favors an upside break, though weak ETF demand and falling stablecoin supply leave any rally short on fresh capital.
Bitcoin topped $64,500 at the start of the new business week, its first move above that level in seven to eight days after several days of sideways trading and fresh losses. Analyst Ali Martinez said the rally is already at risk, pointing to selling pressure building on several fronts.
Miners, ETFs, and Strategy add to the pressure
Miners have disposed of 1,648 BTC over the past ten days as the price rose to $64,600, adding "roughly $106 million in potential selling pressure", according to Martinez. Spot Bitcoin ETF investors withdrew almost $400 million worth of BTC last week, reversing over $850 million in net inflows the week before.
Strategy has also paused its BTC purchases indefinitely and made multiple sales in recent months, cutting its total holdings by more than 3,300 BTC in just weeks. Meanwhile, exchange balances have grown by 24,700 BTC over the past ten days, adding roughly $1.6 billion in potential sell-side liquidity. The Coinbase Premium has stayed negative for more than three months, a sign of weaker US demand.
Support at $63,200 has held through repeated tests
Bitfinex analysts told crypto.news that Bitcoin traded near $64,500 after almost three months in a contracting range. The coin finished the week ending Aug. 16 down 3.1% at $62,921 before recovering into the $63,000–$64,000 range.
The analysts identified $63,200 as the median realized price, a support level defended through repeated tests. Bitcoin also needs to reclaim $67,176, the short-term holder realized price, to return recent buyers to profit.
Liquidity has yet to confirm the case for a rally
However, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows on four of five sessions between Aug. 10 and Aug. 14, losing about $385.2 million for the week, Bitfinex said, citing Farside Investors data. Stablecoin supply has also fallen about 4.5% from its May peak to $300.7 billion, according to the analysts.
Without stronger ETF inflows and expanding stablecoin supply, Bitfinex said the case for renewed demand remains unconfirmed, leaving any potential rally without the fresh capital it would need.
Sources: CryptoPotato, crypto.news
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