Bitcoin's one-year HODL share climbed to 63.3% on Sept. 18, up from 62.32% a month earlier. The shift traces to coins aging past the one-year threshold rather than fresh buying, and separate evidence is still needed to confirm accumulation.
Bitcoin's share of supply that has not moved on-chain in at least a year reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo's HODL-wave data. That is a gain of 0.98 percentage points in a month, a move some have read as a bullish signal.
Its market capitalization stood at $1.62 trillion, and it was down 0.58% over the past 24 hours.
What the age bands actually show
HODL waves group Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs by how long ago they last moved on-chain. Coins that last moved roughly a year ago simply cross into the one-to-two-year bracket by staying still, so the rising share does not by itself prove new buying.
The one-to-two-year band increased to 14.57% of supply from 13.52%, a gain of 1.05 percentage points and the largest positive change among cohorts already older than a year. Meanwhile, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%, a move Glassnode's Sept. 18 snapshot also showed. The paired shift is consistent with coins simply crossing the one-year boundary, since each band is a net share after coins age in, age out, or reset when they move on-chain.
Ownership stays unresolved
Recent movement also eased: coins last moved within one month accounted for 7.03% of supply on Sept. 18, down 0.27 percentage points from 7.30% a month earlier. But last-movement age leaves beneficial ownership and intent unresolved. A transfer between wallets controlled by the same person or custodian can make an output look young even though ownership never changed, and lost coins can sit in the oldest bands without reflecting a deliberate decision to hold.
Coinbase illustrated that uncertainty in November 2025, when it warned that an internal wallet migration would create large on-chain volumes unrelated to market conditions — though that episode is not offered as the cause of the current shift.
An aging signal, not proof of demand
The Sept. 18 readings support a limited conclusion: Bitcoin's on-chain age distribution grew older while the share moved within a month declined. Available-for-sale supply and liquid-supply tightening remain unmeasured. Confirming a fresh-accumulation thesis needs entity-adjusted balance changes, exchange flows, and spending behavior — until those measures align, the rising one-year wave is an aging signal rather than proof of new demand.
Source: CryptoSlate
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