Coinbase analysts have taken a neutral view of Bitcoin and the wider crypto market for Q3 2026, reading the current setup as the early stage of a bottoming process rather than a confirmed low. They point to compressed valuations and recovering ETF demand, yet warn that a hawkish macro backdrop could still stall any recovery.
Coinbase analysts, led by Colin Basco, have adopted a neutral outlook on Bitcoin for Q3 2026, framing the asset as moving from a corrective phase toward accumulation. They read the Supply in Loss metric sitting at 50% as a match for previous market cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin printed a yearly low of $57.8K in H2 2026 before recovering nearly 10%, yet it has not reclaimed $68K or the $70K level. Basco reads the compressed valuation as the early innings of a bottoming process rather than a durable low already in place.
What could stall the recovery
Basco described the macro backdrop as hawkish, citing fears of Fed rate hikes and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. He warned that re-escalation of the conflict, resurging oil prices, and selling from prominent digital asset treasuries all present near-term bearish catalysts.
Those rate concerns carried weight. Kalshi was pricing a 70% chance of a Fed interest rate hike before 2027, meaning within H2 2026.
What could reignite momentum
On the positive side, the analysts noted that U.S. spot BTC ETF flows have seen a growing recovery in H2 2026. Basco said the team would turn more constructive on Q3 if the Fed pivots dovish and the inflation print comes in softer, which would unlock liquidity and boost sustained ETF flows.
According to Coinbase's Colin Basco, the macro and on-chain pictures tell two different stories: "For now, patience is the trade."
Which levels matter in Q3
From a price perspective, the main potential floor could be the average cost basis level of $53K if the pullback extends in Q3, a 17% drop from the current level of $64K. A sustained recovery would be confirmed if BTC reclaims $72.3K, coinciding with the 200-day moving average, and $76K, the True Market Mean.
Source: AMBCrypto
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