Gold and silver's price lows for 2026 are very likely already set, according to Sprott Money's Craig Hemke, who argues the market hit "Peak Hawkishness" right after the June FOMC. His call lands as fresh weakness drags silver below $61 and follows the steepest monthly gold drop in nearly two decades.
The late-June lows in gold and silver are very likely to be the price lows of 2026, according to Craig Hemke at Sprott Money. He argues the metals hit "Peak Hawkishness" in the days immediately after the June FOMC meeting, and that the pressure pushing prices down should now ease.
Hemke traces the four-month slump to the Iran War, which sent energy prices sharply higher and lifted both inflation expectations and rate-hike projections. Crude climbed from $65 to $110 after the conflict began, he noted, but with most hostilities over, the price has round-tripped back to $68.
Why the pressure should ease
That reversal matters because energy fed straight into the data. The energy component of the Fed's preferred inflation measure spiked 21% from March to May, Hemke pointed out, and with crude back at pre-war levels he expects a sharp drop in the months ahead. As those inflation concerns fade, he argues, the risk of a Fed rate hike fades with them.
He is not calling for a sharp rebound, however. Hemke said the chart damage has been significant, with prices below all the key moving averages, and he expects the metals to move sideways for a while rather than stage a V-shaped recovery.
Selling meets bargain hunting
The caution shows in investor behaviour. Gold's month-average price fell 7.6% in June to $4,238 an ounce, its steepest monthly drop since August 2008, according to BullionVault. Yet the number of private investors buying gold on the platform still rose 21.3% from May, as bargain hunters met nervous recent buyers heading for the exit.
Silver has borne the brunt of the latest leg down. The metal slid below $61 to around $60.70 on Tuesday, down 2.21% on the day, as higher Treasury yields and a firm dollar weighed on non-yielding assets ahead of the FOMC minutes due Wednesday. Hemke suggests watching the 20-day moving average: a move back above it would signal the year's lows are behind the market.
Sources: KITCO, BullionVault, FXStreet
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