Gold slipped for a fourth straight session, holding near a one-week low around $4,020 as renewed US-Iran tensions and inflation worries fed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. A mildly softer dollar failed to lift the metal, which stays below its 200-day moving average.
Gold traded with a negative tone for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, holding close to the one-week low near $4,020 reached the prior session. The metal struggled to attract sustained buying even as the US Dollar stayed under pressure in Asian trading.
Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have revived inflation worries and strengthened expectations for a possible Fed rate hike in 2026. Those factors weighed on the non-yielding metal and blunted the impact of the softer dollar.
Mixed Fed signals keep pressure on bullion
The dollar eased after the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which delivered no clear hawkish surprise. The minutes from the June 16–17 meeting showed policymakers split on the path for interest rates, with many participants seeing the appropriate federal funds rate within or slightly below the current target range by year-end.
Fed officials still flagged that upside inflation risks remain elevated and suggested some additional policy firming would likely be needed to guide inflation back to the 2% objective. Traders are now assigning roughly a 70% probability that the Fed raises rates in September, a view that limits deeper dollar losses and curbs bullish positioning in gold.
US-Iran escalation adds to the pressure
Geopolitics deepened the uncertainty. The US military launched a fresh round of strikes against Iran, described as retaliation for Tehran’s attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions intensified after President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was over.
The backdrop sustains inflation concerns and expectations of tighter Fed policy, so any upticks in gold are being viewed with caution. On the charts, gold gapped lower to test the $4,000 level, a large round figure that draws attention, with support noted near $3,900.
Technical structure stays bearish
Gold remains below its 200-day simple moving average and inside a descending channel, with the Relative Strength Index at 40.26 after a modest rebound from oversold conditions. A corrective bounce would likely meet selling near the channel’s upper boundary around $4,247.94, while the lower band near $3,811.93 marks a key support area.
Market focus now turns to US weekly initial jobless claims and comments from FOMC members, though developments in the Middle East are expected to remain the primary driver of volatility. A decisive break above $4,247.94 would be needed to ease the current downside pressure.
Sources: TradingPedia, DailyForex
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