Gold jumped $255 in under 24 hours this week, rebounding from a low near $3,940 an ounce to above $4,195 as a wider precious-metals rally added roughly $1.25 trillion in six hours. Analyst Lars Hansen of The Gold & Silver Club argues the pullback was a reset before a further leg higher, with the firm projecting a base case of $5,400 by year-end.
Gold rebounded from a low near $3,940 an ounce to above $4,195 in less than 24 hours this week — a $255 move in a single day. The wider reversal across precious metals was larger still: approximately $1.25 trillion was added to the precious metals market in just six hours.
Metals surge as the rally broadens
Within that move, Gold gained 3.7%, adding around $1.05 trillion in market value. Silver ran harder, surging 6% and adding roughly $200 billion.
Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club, reads the earlier dip as a reset rather than a top, arguing the backdrop is one in which Gold stops being treated as insurance and starts behaving like a wealth-creation trade.
A deteriorating macro backdrop
Hansen ties the move to a shifting global picture. Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 and services edged up to 50.2, while the Japanese yen fell to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar since 1986. The New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index climbed to 1.8, its highest since July 2022.
At the same time, the U.S. faces around $8 trillion of Treasury refinancing over the next 12 months, with deficits still near $2 trillion annually. Hansen argues that limits Washington’s room to fight inflation with the aggressive rate playbook of the Volcker era.
Tech stress and an AI price shock
The technology sector that carried the equity bull market is showing stress. Micron fell 7.77% this week, wiping out roughly $100 billion after being named alongside Samsung and SK Hynix in a federal class action lawsuit over DRAM pricing. Microsoft posted its worst month since December 2000, falling 20.4%.
The analysis also flags a possible new inflation source: AI chip prices have surged 500% to 700% over the past four years, which it says may raise the risk that the next inflation wave comes not from oil but from technology.
Where the firm sees Gold heading
For context, Gold has gained around 67% since the start of 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 3.5 times over the same 18-month period. The Gold & Silver Club’s proprietary models continue to project a base-case Gold target of $5,400 an ounce by year-end, a level Hansen describes as conservative.
Source: FXStreet
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