Prediction-market traders expect gold to keep recovering this month but stop short of its January peak, with bets clustering around a July high of $4,300 an ounce. The metal traded near $4,127 on Tuesday after a first half that ranked among its worst quarterly declines in over a decade.
Traders on the prediction market Polymarket see gold climbing further in July yet stalling well below its record, pricing a 54% probability that the metal touches $4,300 at some point this month. Gold was trading around $4,127 on Tuesday, up more than 3% on the day as it recovered from a bruising start to the year.
Odds thin out above $4,300
The wagers describe a market that has steadied rather than roared back. Above $4,300 the confidence drains quickly: bettors give 31% odds for $4,400 and 18% for $4,500, and a return to $4,600 was priced at just a 6% chance.
The caution follows a violent reversal. Gold soared to a record above $5,500 an ounce in January before shedding more than a quarter of its value and briefly dropping below $4,000 in late June. That decline ranked among its worst quarterly slumps in over a decade.
Rates and the dollar drove the slide
Rising bond yields, a stronger dollar and a rotation back into technology stocks pulled investors away from defensive assets. Higher-for-longer interest rates also weighed on gold, which pays no yield and looks less attractive when real rates climb.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% through the first half of the year, and some officials signalled a readiness to raise it further. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data has since tempered those expectations, offering the metal some support.
Banks stay bullish on the long view
Longer-term, several major banks remain bullish despite the sell-off. JP Morgan has forecast prices near $6,300 by the end of 2026, while UBS argued the drop created an opening for long-term buyers. Both point to sustained central bank buying, which added more than 1,000 tonnes to reserves last year.
Source: Proactive (via Yahoo Finance)
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