Investment bank Jefferies warns the Clarity Act still faces a hard path through the Senate, and the uncertainty could drive volatility across crypto markets in the weeks ahead. Polymarket now prices the odds of passage by the end of 2026 at 48%, down from 70% in mid-May. Passage would deepen institutional adoption; a delay would prolong regulatory limbo.
Jefferies expects the fate of the Clarity Act to fuel volatility across crypto markets in the coming weeks, even after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee. The bank says tougher challenges lie ahead, and traders are already marking down its chances.
Odds of passage have fallen sharply
Polymarket now puts the odds of passage by the end of 2026 at 48%, down from 70% in mid-May, as concerns over ethics provisions, illicit finance and limited Senate floor time weigh on its prospects. The bill cleared committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote earlier this year, but the path from there narrows quickly.
Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before the August recess to merge competing Senate versions, clear procedural votes, reconcile the measure with the House bill and send it to President Donald Trump. Missing that window carries a cost. According to a Tuesday report from analysts led by Andrew Moss, failing to pass the bill before the recess could push it into next year, or even later if Democrats flip the Senate in November.
Why the bill matters for markets
The Clarity Act would set rules for when digital assets are treated as securities by the SEC or commodities by the CFTC, replacing years of regulatory uncertainty. Jefferies says passage would give banks, asset managers and exchanges the framework they need to expand custody, staking, lending and tokenization services, and would broaden crypto ETF offerings beyond bitcoin and ether.
A delay would do the opposite. Recent SEC, CFTC and OCC guidance has improved the outlook, but the report notes agency actions can be reversed by future administrations, which could push regulated institutions to slow blockchain initiatives. The bank expects the legislative process to move crypto-linked equities including Circle, Coinbase and Bullish, along with select tokens.
Source: CoinDesk
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