Morgan Stanley projects global AI compute investment of approximately $1.58 trillion in 2027. The spending is expected to account for about 25% of S&P 500 sales growth, and half of it is expected to be financed by debt.
Morgan Stanley's new projection puts global AI compute investment by hyperscalers and neo-cloud providers at approximately $1.58 trillion in 2027. That spending is expected to make up roughly 5% of S&P 500 sales and about 25% of the index's sales growth that year. Half of the projected investment is expected to be financed by debt.
Leases push the total higher
The 2027 figure climbs from around $980 billion in 2026, and Morgan Stanley expects it to reach $1.81 trillion in 2028. The number counts more than cash: the bank estimates roughly $195 billion in lease capex in 2027, rising to $246 billion by 2028. Including leases puts the projection 14% above earlier estimates that tracked only cash outlays.
Oracle leads the lease group at $57.2 billion, followed by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google. Hyperscalers currently hold over $1.1 trillion in pending lease commitments.
Nvidia expected to capture two-thirds of inflows
The report forecasts Nvidia capturing around two-thirds of AI-related inflows, amounting to nearly $690 billion. Morgan Stanley also estimates that "AI enablers" and "adopters" will together drive around 78% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027.
Goldman Sachs reached a similar conclusion looking backward. The bank found that AI-related capital expenditure has driven nearly half of the recent earnings growth for the S&P 500.
Leases sit outside capex
Data-center leases function a lot like debt-financed asset purchases, but companies do not record them as capex. As a result, traditional cash-flow statements may understate the real scale of the buildout.
The research notes that high-rated hyperscalers still retain substantial borrowing capacity. However, they face free cash flow pressure because so much of the spending is front-loaded. The research also anticipates capex growth rates decelerating after 2027, even as total spending keeps climbing toward $1.81 trillion in 2028.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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