Middle East crude flows remain roughly a third below pre-war levels despite a clandestine tanker operation moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz without transponder signals. Estimates of the true volume vary widely between Goldman Sachs, analytics firm Vortexa, and the U.S. energy secretary, but Reuters' analysis puts the industry consensus at about two-thirds of pre-war exports. The uncertainty has fed into a risk premium that helped push Brent crude above $100 a barrel this week.
Estimates diverge sharply
Tankers have carried out "dark crossings" of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, sailing with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid Iranian attacks. The clandestine shipments, organized with U.S. military support, have kept crude oil from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reaching global markets even as the risk premium built into prices.
Last week the U.S. energy secretary said shipments were almost back to where they stood before U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28 triggered the war. But Reuters' analysis of the data shows the industry consensus is closer to around two-thirds of pre-war volumes. In a September 2 note, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated total Gulf oil exports, including dark crossings, at roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels per day — also about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
Vortexa put total exports from the Gulf region at 15 million barrels per day in August, still down 10 million bpd from pre-war levels. On Wednesday, Brent crude futures climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, while U.S. diesel prices hit an all-time high last week.
Hormuz traffic swings day to day
Crude and refined products moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged around 8 million bpd on a seven-day moving-average basis, Vortexa said. According to Vortexa: "Daily transits fluctuate strongly with substantial spikes and troughs", analyst Pamela Munger said.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Sunday that his earlier 17 million to 18 million bpd figure referred to a single 24-hour period last week, with the running average across all waterborne routes at 9 million bpd — much closer to the industry consensus. Gulf crude exports reached as much as 14 million bpd on some days in early September, including secret tanker flows and Saudi Red Sea exports that bypass the strait, according to Kpler and an industry source. Exports were much lower on other days, depending on the intensity of Iran's tanker attacks.
Covert flows worth billions
Using an average oil price of $80 a barrel and a conservative assumption of six million barrels a day over the past 90 days, Reuters calculated dark shipments amounted to at least 500 million barrels between June and August — worth at least $40 billion.
Source: Commodities & Futures News
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