Solana trades near $121 after a 14.6% gain in September, with a break above the $124-125 resistance zone needed to reopen the path toward $148. U.S. Solana ETFs added just $800,000 last week, a sharp slowdown from $188.1 million the week before, while the Alpenglow consensus upgrade still has no confirmed mainnet date.
Solana (SOL) trades around $121.27 on Oct. 4, up roughly 1.6% over 24 hours but down 2.5% over seven days, according to CoinGecko data cited by crypto.news. The token's market capitalization stands near $71.3 billion, with 24-hour trading volume of approximately $1.7 billion.
SOL needs to clear $124-125 before $148 comes into view
The move follows two strong months: SOL gained around 41.5% in August before rising another 14.6% in September, closing the month near $118 after opening near $103. SOL closed at $122.08 on Sept. 25 and briefly traded above $124 intraday before retreating toward $118 by month's end. That leaves the 124-125 region as the main hurdle for October.
According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, whose chart placed $117 as the level SOL needed to hold: "Flipped the $117 resistance. Targeting $148 next if this level holds." SOL has held above that support zone so far, though the 124-125 resistance still has to give way first. A move from $121 to $148 would require roughly a 22% advance.
Momentum indicators are mixed. The monthly chart shows RSI at 50.70, above its moving average of 46.61. MACD, by contrast, remains below zero at -8.82 against a signal line near -5.34. The negative MACD reading means longer-term bearish momentum has not fully disappeared, even as the narrowing histogram shows downside pressure easing.
Solana ETF inflows slow sharply entering October
Institutional demand cooled heading into October. Farside Investors data show U.S. Solana ETFs recorded just $800,000 in combined net inflows from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2. That is a sharp slowdown from the $188.1 million the products attracted the previous week, including $86.7 million on Sept. 25 alone. The five sessions since Sept. 28 included $12.5 million in outflows on Sept. 30, leaving the group nearly flat for the week. Cumulative Solana ETF flows still total approximately $1.6 billion, with Bitwise's BSOL accounting for the largest share.
Alpenglow and tokenization add catalysts without guarantees
Solana's Alpenglow upgrade, which targets reducing finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds by replacing the TowerBFT consensus system, remains in testing. The Solana Foundation's documentation says each cluster migrates on its own schedule rather than at a single fixed activation time, and mainnet has not received a confirmed date.
Separately, the SEC granted temporary conditional relief on Sept. 17 allowing qualifying venues to trade tokenized U.S.-listed stocks through permissioned automated market makers, though the order does not name Solana or any specific blockchain. The Solana Foundation separately announced Project Harmonia with Allfunds, which had approximately €1.9 trillion in assets under administration as of June 30; applications for the first cohort remain open until Oct. 24.
Source: crypto.news
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