U.S. regulators are pushing ahead on crypto and tokenization policy even though the CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate. Prediction markets now give the bill only a 5% chance of becoming law in 2026, and agencies are advancing initiatives under their existing authority instead of waiting on Congress.
Prediction markets put the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 5%, unchanged from the previous day but down from 6% a week earlier. The bill, which would have split digital asset oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, failed to pass in the Senate last month.
Despite the stall, U.S. regulators have continued advancing crypto and tokenization initiatives under their existing authority. The SEC has issued an "Innovation Exemption" for tokenized stocks and approved a tokenized securities proposal. Market observers suggest these regulatory actions are consistent with a scenario where the CLARITY Act stays stalled, and point to crypto policy developing through agency rulemaking rather than through new legislation.
Observers are watching whether President Donald Trump or Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott take action to revive the bill. Any signs of renewed legislative effort or statements from the White House could move market pricing on the bill's chances. Further regulatory measures from the SEC or the CFTC, on the other hand, could reinforce the current trend of agencies setting crypto policy through rulemaking rather than statute.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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