Strategy Sells More Bitcoin While MSCI Weighs Index Exclusion and Analysts Cut MSTR Targets

3 min read
Strategy Sells More Bitcoin While MSCI Weighs Index Exclusion and Analysts Cut MSTR Targets
PrimeXBT Editorial Team
Reviewed by PrimeXBT

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Strategy sold 1,638 bitcoin for $104.73 million in the week ending August 3, cutting its holdings to 842,138 BTC in the clearest sign yet that Michael Saylor's four-year "never sell" stance has given way to active treasury management. The company is now also fighting a possible MSCI index exclusion and watching Wall Street trim its stock price targets even as its preferred shares rally.

Strategy sold 1,638 bitcoin for $104.73 million in the week ending August 3, cutting total holdings to 842,138 BTC. Alongside the sale, the company raised $290.6 million by selling 3.01 million MSTR common shares and used the combined proceeds to add $250 million to its USD reserve and repurchase 912,143 STRC preferred shares for $81.2 million.

That reserve has now grown to $4 billion. Strategy's average cost basis is $75,419 per coin, while bitcoin trades near $63,000 — leaving the company underwater by about $12,400 per coin, or roughly $10.4 billion in aggregate unrealized losses.

Saylor Highlights the 200-Week Average

Saylor, who told Bloomberg in 2024 he had no plans to sell any bitcoin, announced on August 3 that Strategy will now track bitcoin's 200-week moving average on its website. The metric currently sits near $63,770, a level bitcoin is testing from below after historically trading above it 92% of the time.

However, institutional demand looks thin. Spot bitcoin ETFs turned negative in late July, with $265.4 million in net outflows on July 31 alone, and Strategy has stayed out of the market for five straight weeks. According to ARP Digital's Yusuf Fakhro: "reflects stalled participation more than forced selling".

MSCI Review Threatens Index Status

MSCI has opened a consultation that could exclude Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes as early as November 2026. Under the proposed rules, a company must pass at least two of five financial screening tests to stay eligible, and Strategy reportedly fails all five based on its FY2025 filings.

Therefore, MSCI's own simulation names Strategy, Yellow Cake, and Metaplanet as likely deletions from the MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index, with three more companies on a watchlist. Analysts have revised their estimate of index-linked selling if Strategy is removed to $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion, down from an earlier projection of $2.5 billion to $2.8 billion.

Wall Street Cuts MSTR Targets as STRC Rallies

MSTR stock rose 1.69% on August 4 to close at $94, even as Cantor Fitzgerald and B.Riley trimmed their price targets. Cantor cut its target from $212 to $186 after lowering its bitcoin price forecast for August 2027 from $111,000 to $98,000. B.Riley separately cut its target from $215 to $155 after lowering its own bitcoin forecast from $81,500 to $65,000 and noting that Strategy has stopped buying.

STRC preferred shares, meanwhile, climbed to a seven-week high of $92, up 29% from their all-time low of $71 set on June 26. Strategy's buybacks are also reducing its future dividend obligations by retiring STRC shares below par value.

Chief executive Phong Le has said Strategy would resume buying bitcoin once STRC reaches its $100 par value. MSTR itself has traded between $90 and $100 since July 2 and needs three straight closing days above that level to confirm a shift toward buyers.

Sources: crypto.news, Coinpedia Fintech News, CoinGape

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