XRP ETFs pulled in just $27.29 million in July, a 96% drop from their first month, leaving the funds $6.49 billion short of Standard Chartered's $8 billion first-year target. With three months left before the November 13 deadline, the funds would need roughly $2.2 billion a month to get there.
Inflows slow sharply after a fast start
XRP ETF inflows began strong, with the funds gathering $666.61 million in their first month after launching on November 13, 2025. December brought another $499.91 million, but January inflows fell to $15.59 million, just 3% of December's total.
The slide continued through 2026. Inflows recovered to $58.09 million in February. Investors then pulled $31.16 million back out in March. April and May brought a rebound, with $81.59 million and $131.94 million respectively — May remains the best month of 2026. Inflows then fell to $59.46 million in June and $27.29 million in July.
Through the first ten trading days of August, the funds have recorded $3.27 million, or roughly $1 million a week. By contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs currently pull in more than $400 million on a good day — over 400 times what XRP funds now take in weekly.
In total, XRP ETFs have gathered $1.51 billion since launch. The funds are now worth $933 million, 43% below their January peak of $1.65 billion. The XRP price has fallen 46% since January 2026, now trading at $1.00.
Standard Chartered already hit its trigger, but cut its forecast anyway
Standard Chartered forecast in April 2025 that XRP ETFs would pull in $4 billion to $8 billion in their first twelve months. A month later, it raised that range to $4.3 billion to $8.4 billion. Its $8 target carried one condition: cumulative inflows above $1.15 billion plus regulatory clarity.
XRP ETFs cleared that threshold on December 30, seven weeks after launch. However, the bank still cut its end-2026 target by 65% to $2.80 in February, after the XRP price fell to $1.16. That was its largest reduction across any crypto asset it covers, and it blamed ETF outflows, tight Fed policy and capitulation-prone sentiment.
The gap comes down to what a cumulative figure measures: it counts everything that ever arrived, including the initial $666.61 million rush, and keeps counting that money forever even as monthly inflows slow to a trickle.
The math needed to reach $8 billion
XRP ETFs must gather another $6.49 billion before the one-year window closes on November 13 — roughly $2.2 billion a month for three straight months, more than three times the $666.61 million the funds recorded in their best month ever. Even the lesser $4 billion target would need about $850 million in monthly inflows.
At the $46 million monthly average the funds have posted across 2026, they would not reach $8 billion until 2038. At July's pace, it would take about 20 years; at August's pace, closer to 79.
Standard Chartered's revised $7 XRP prediction for 2027 depends on the CLARITY Act passing and inflows scaling past $4 billion. The Senate cloture vote on the bill is set for September 15, and Polymarket prices its chances of passing this year near 16%.
Without that vote, XRP ETFs could finish their first year closer to $1.6 billion than $4 billion, short of even the bottom of Standard Chartered's original forecast by more than half.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
